Switch Sales Plummet Amidst Rumors of Successor

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, with Switch console and game sales falling "below expectations." For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console sales dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion), reflecting decreased sales of both the Switch and its software. Mobile and IP-related revenue also declined by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), primarily due to tough comparisons with the highly successful 2023 film, The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-over-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, marking the second consecutive revision. The company anticipates even lower Nintendo Switch hardware sales than previously projected, reducing its forecast by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million units to 150 million.

While sales declines were expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially anticipated. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold, a remarkable achievement. While overtaking the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales to become the best-selling console of all time may be unlikely, surpassing the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales remains a possibility.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable, considering the platform's eighth year." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, with software sales declining 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million sales.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success, outpacing previous Mario Party titles on the Switch within its first 11 weeks of release (October 17, 2024).

Significantly, active Switch users reached a record high of 129 million "annual playing users" in 2024, indicating sustained player engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that Switch unit sales declined year-over-year, but holiday season sales in some weeks even exceeded those of the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors eagerly await the Switch 2's release. Nintendo confirmed upcoming Switch titles: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20 release), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (scheduled for 2025). The company reiterated the Switch 2's planned 2025 release, promising a dedicated "Switch 2 Direct" presentation on April 2nd and global hands-on events.